Turnaround optimization has never been more critical, with each turnaround representing massive investments of time, capital, and manpower to enhance reliability and extend asset life. However, a poorly executed turnaround can still significantly impact operations and lead to higher risks. Why?
It’s not the lack of effort, but rather a reliance on outdated models and methods that require a lot of time, energy, and calculations to determine the scope of work, that has led to over- and under-inspections. Traditional approaches require extensive manual analysis to decide what goes into scope, and even then, priorities can be skewed by human bias. Quantitative Reliability Optimization (QRO) allows for faster planning and better focus on high-return-on-investment (ROI) activities based on integrated data.
Why Turnaround Planning Often Falls Short
Traditionally, facilities collect information from siloed data sources. This leads to redundancy or even incomplete data, with various people using and manipulating large amounts of the same information. Add to that a siloed team structure, and the entire process can become slow, inconsistent, and prone to risk exposure. Each siloed group uses different logic to evaluate data, leading to fragmented insights and risk modeling outcomes based on human bias or varied experience levels.
Considering many facilities follow fixed maintenance schedules regardless of actual equipment condition, this type of reactive approach often results in either premature part replacements or extremely late interventions. In some cases, it means overspending on equipment that does not need attention. However, facilities are experiencing increased unplanned outages and incidents. In short, traditional methods plateau because they can’t continuously align turnaround actions with business value.
The Next-Gen Turnaround Optimization
What sets high-performing facilities apart are their intelligent systems and data-driven processes, giving them an edge in making strategic decisions. The core of these systems is based on Quantitative Reliability Optimization (QRO) modeling.
QRO transforms traditional turnaround planning from a fragmented, opinion-driven process into a single, data-driven model that prioritizes the highest-value activities. Instead of making sense of siloed data, programs, and teams, QRO uses real data to generate real-time reliability modeling. This quantitative approach instantly sees the impact of asset risk, downtime, spend, and safety risk, allowing you to make informed and precise decisions.
Powered by Pinnacle’s Newton™ engine, QRO for Turnaround Optimization delivers:
- Streamlined Data: Ingests process data, inspection history, lab results, maintenance findings, predictive monitoring data,
and industry failure models.
- Probability of Failure (POF): Uses first engineering principles and AI to quantify failure probability for each mode, with
uncertainty factored in.
- Consequence of Failure (COF): Incorporates production losses, repair costs, and HSE impacts.
- System-Level Modeling: Rolls individual asset models into a complete plant view, linking asset health to availability and
throughput.
- Automated Optimization: Evaluates all possible tasks—inspection, repair, deferment—and generates the combination that
yields the highest availability improvement per dollar spent.
The QRO model makes it clear which activities can be safely deferred and which should be prioritized to achieve optimal outcomes while controlling costs. As economics change, schedules move, or new priorities emerge, QRO also enables the rapid creation of alternative plans and optimization scenarios. This allows engineers, planners, and managers to make better bottom-line decisions faster than traditional methods, ensuring scope is prioritized based on quantitative business value rather than tradition or opinion.
Real-World QRO Turnaround Optimization in Action
At a chemical plant with a major Gulf Coast refiner, Pinnacle applied QRO to optimize a turnaround scope. The original plan projected 81.16% post-turnaround availability with $5 million in planned spend. After applying QRO data-driven modeling, the optimized plan increased availability to 91.72% while reducing spend by $2.4 million, focusing resources only on the most critical, high-value actions.
At a 300k+ bpd refinery crude unit, QRO identified approximately 20% cost deferral on turnaround scope and $7 million in failure avoidance. With only $200k in spend, the analysis was completed in just four months, delivering $2 million in immediate savings. Based on these results, the refinery is fast-tracking QRO across more units, with total turnaround optimization projected to deliver $27 million in annual savings.
By identifying low-value work and prioritizing the most critical actions, the site achieved a significantly higher return on its turnaround investment by improving performance while lowering costs. The planning process importantly shifted from “tribal” decision-making with siloed teams and spreadsheets dictating scope, to a single, data-driven model that delivered results quickly and with measurable confidence.
Key Advantages of QRO for Turnaround Optimization
- Scope Rationalization – Remove non-value activities while ensuring the highest-risk items are addressed.
- Scenario Modeling – Rapidly evaluate alternate turnaround windows, scope changes, or budget scenarios.
- Reduced Human Bias – Apply consistent, quantitative logic across all assets.
- Integrated Reliability Planning – Link turnaround scope with routine maintenance, inspections, and CAPEX planning.
- Agile, Rapid Analysis & Speed to Value – Deliver optimized scopes in weeks, achieving results up to 10x faster than traditional methods.
The Future Starts Here
Turnarounds are no longer just maintenance events. They are strategic opportunities to enhance reliability, reduce risk, and ensure sustained performance. Now, it’s proven that fixed maintenance schedules and reactive planning often lead to unnecessary work, missed risks, and lost value.
Quantitative Reliability Optimization uses real-time data, advanced analytics, and system-level insights to help teams make smarter decisions. This allows your team to reduce unnecessary work, huge costs from failures, and improve availability. QRO helps your facility focus on what really matters.
Let Quantitative Reliability Optimization bring clarity, confidence, and measurable value to every decision. Connect with Pinnacle today and start planning with precision.